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2026 is shaping up to be a transitional year, marked by uncertainties that will test the various real estate market actors’ ability to adapt to rapid and potentially quite significant changes. The current main scenario entails a slightly expanding economy, with a significant fiscal adjustment and a potentially record-setting year for public infrastructure completions. All in all, it could be a year that sets up the next upward cycle for the domestic economy, but risks abound: from a somewhat shaky internal political backdrop which may hinder decision-making at a time when the economy needs some major reforms to deep changes in the global geopolitical architecture. We must also keep in mind that Romania is a small and open economy, meaning that what happens with major economies and trading partners will have a significant impact internally. This increased caution is bound to be felt across the various real estate sectors, but, for better or worse, assuming the current trajectory, 2026 should be similar or even better than 2025.
1.
Difficult waters ahead for economy
Economic activity in 2026 will have to weather a great many storms and negative factors (adopting reforms in a fluid internal political backdrop and external uncertainties, the dire need for fiscal tightening, a shifting external backdrop), with upside factors carrying less weight (mostly stemming from EU funds, with some relief potentially after Q2 2026 amid central bank rate cuts). All in all, a GDP growth rate of slightly above 1% is the best Romania can hope for at the turn of the new year, laying the groundwork for future acceleration in 2027. A rating outlook upgrade is possible in the second half of the year provided fiscal consolidation performs as expected.
2.
Record year for infrastructure? Political stability and predictability are key
With some delays during 2025, 2026 has the chance to be a record year for infrastructure: over 300 kilometers of high-speed roads can be delivered (expanding the existing network by over 20%), with major works also related to railway infrastructure. Existing EU fund lines alongside the new SAFE program (designed for spending related to defense, which Romania will mobilize partly for further infrastructure investments) are available, but all of this hinges on the government’s ability to adopt the necessary reforms and given the fragmented nature of local politics, this will be somewhat of a feat.
3.
Inflation to return to lower single digits, allowing rate cuts
The ailing economy will receive some support as soon as Q2 2026, as the prospect of lower inflation once the effects of 2025’s tax hikes wear off, will allow the central bank to cut rates, around 1 percentage point in cuts expected through 2026. This will help borrowers quite a bit given the cooler economic backdrop, but the effect will nevertheless be delayed in some cases (like for mortgage borrowers) and maybe act more as a signal boost for overall confidence in the economy.
4.
Fiscal issues remain in focus
With a somewhat fragmented decision-making process among the governing parties, it will be difficult to reduce the budget deficit from an estimated over 8% in 2025 to a c.6% figure in 2026. This is an important stepping stone to reaching the 3% goal down the road, but it may require additional measures if the economy or tax collection disappoint. Political and social instability cannot be ruled out and neither can a downgrade of Romania’s sovereign bonds into junk territory, though this is far from the base scenario.
5.
Bucharest office space balance shifting towards the landlords
After zero deliveries in 2025, the office pipeline is coming back to life, albeit at a mellower pace than before. With new projects commanding a significantly higher rent (amid increased construction costs versus a few years ago) and the office space in good buildings dwindling, we would expect the market to continue shifting towards a landlords’ market even with fairly lackluster demand (which seems plausible given how cautious companies are amid the current uncertain backdrop).
6.
Increased diversification for the I&L market
Infrastructure is paving the way for new areas of the country to become a viable destination and new sectors are becoming increasingly interesting (notably defense-related, but also investments in various manufacturing sectors by companies entering Romania, especially from Asia). As a result, we believe 2026 will show an increased diversification of the I&L market in quite a lot of different ways. After a record-setting 2025 in terms of leasing activity, we would expect a slight cooling in terms of leasing activity, but any surprises would be to the upside rather than the downside provided the global economy remains in decent shape.
7.
Retail – solid appetite in spite of challenging backdrop
With Romania hitting the 5 million sqm of leasable retail areas in 2025, it is still lagging behind its regional peers on a per capita basis, in spite of the country overperforming in terms of retail sales in the last years (except 2025). As a result, retail deliveries will continue to track well above the pre-pandemic average and while the focus will remain on smaller regional cities, works will continue on major deliveries due potentially in the 2027-2030 period. Amid a softer labour market, high inflation and increased taxes, the consumer story is feeling a bit poorer, but nonetheless, Romania has seen one of the fastest increases in the EU in the last 5-10 years, so even a brief pause in consumer spending should not be viewed as something exceptionally bad.
8.
Investment pickup, signs of yield compression?
With local assets performing quite well on the revenue side (mostly from good occupancy rather than rental growth through 2025) and assuming that Western European assets will see some downward moves for yields (as some are expecting), Romanian real estate assets may also see some f¡Ωavourable price action in the latter part of the year. Also, with quite a few sizeable tickets failing to close in 2025, the pipeline for 2026 is quite substantial and should lead to a good year in terms of turnover.
9.
Good year ahead for land
While 2025 was not that special in terms of the overall volume of land deals (despite quite a significant pickup towards the year’s end), it did mark a significant shift as new demand – meaning buyers actively starting processes to purchase land plots – returned in fairly big way. We expect this will translate into a sizeable increase in land transactions closed during 2026, with a special focus on residential, retail and industrial. Nevertheless, the current somewhat uncertain backdrop in general (both internal and external) means that speculators get the upper hand, while JVs and other types of deals will be preferred over outright cash purchases.
10.
Residential: diverging factors at play, but it seems a more one-sided story
The gap between supply and demand on the residential scene in the big cities has been increasing for some time and likely reached levels unseen in recent history during 2025 in some cases. And in spite of the somewhat challenging economic backdrop, purchase intentions remain close to record highs. This means that we could start seeing signs of a significant uptick in residential prices in 2026 provided the economy remains in decent shape, which will also place a focus on PRS schemes as increasingly viable alternatives. All in all, while there are both negative and positive factors at play (in terms of influence on prices), we feel that the latter are much stronger at the start of 2026.